A. Gather the inputs
- Your likely XI average
- Opponent likely XI average
- Your GK / DEF / MID / ATT line averages
- Opponent line averages
- Exact positions correct
- Six same-nationality starters available without weakening the XI
- Home, away, or neutral
- Pitch level
- Fitness and morale of every starter
- Injuries and suspensions
- Opponent formation and game plan
- Opponent marking, offside, and tackling if visible
- Training Camp / Secret Training known, absent, or unknown
- Referee color
- Match objective: win, draw acceptable, protect goal difference, or chase goals
B. Classify the match
| Likely-XI difference | Working category | Default approach |
|---|---|---|
| ≥ +12% | Dominant favorite | Impose your strongest attacking structure |
| +6% to +12% | Clear favorite | Attack while covering the opponent’s main threat |
| +2% to +6% | Slight favorite | Controlled initiative; matchup matters |
| −2% to +2% | Approximately equal | Shape and objective become decisive |
| −2% to −6% | Slight underdog | Reduce exposure; add control or density |
| −6% to −12% | Clear underdog | Prefer defensive/counter family |
| < −12% | Major underdog | Survival and transition threat; five/six defenders often rational |
These are management bands, not published engine breakpoints.
When both expected XI averages use comparable displayed ratings, prefer the simpler point-difference policy from the evidence pack:
| My XI minus opponent XI | Working category |
|---|---|
| +4 or more | Clearly stronger |
| +2 to +3 | Stronger |
| −2 to +2 | Approximately equal |
| −3 to −6 | Weaker |
| −7 or less | Major underdog |
Use the percentage table only as a fallback when comparable point ratings cannot be calculated. Do not combine the point and percentage rules to create false precision.
C. Choose the tactical family
| Situation | First choice | Safe choice | Aggressive choice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong favorite | 4-3-3 A/B | 4-3-3 B or 4-4-2 B | 3-4-3 or 4-2-4 only when justified |
| Equal | Matchup-specific 4-4-2 / 4-5-1 / 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 | 4-4-2 B or 4-2-3-1 | 4-3-3 A or 3-4-3 A |
| Slight underdog | 4-5-1 or 4-2-3-1 | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 counter |
| Clear underdog | 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 A | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 counter |
D. Final contradiction audit
Do not save the tactic until every red flag is resolved:
- Wing Play without meaningful width
- Passing Game with only two midfielders
- Counter Attack with attacking full-backs and very high Style
- Deep five/six-defender block with offside trap enabled
- Maximum Pressing and Style with three defenders as an underdog
- 4-3-3 as a major underdog solely because it is considered “meta”
- 6-3-1 as a dominant favorite
- Important players needlessly out of position
- Low-fitness XI with maximum pressing
- Reckless tackling under an orange/red referee
- Opponent Training Camp ignored in the strength assessment
- Hyper-specific counter based on stale information under Secret Training